Joe Ryan, the 27-year-old starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, finds himself at a crucial juncture in his early career. Despite initial success, he faced significant challenges last season. The question now is whether he can make the necessary adjustments to establish himself as a dependable frontline starter in 2024.
In a recent “Baseball Bits” video titled “The Only Thing That Matters in Baseball,” YouTuber Foolish Bailey emphasized the importance of counts in determining the outcome of an at-bat. When batters started ahead with a 1-0 count last season, they produced an .826 OPS. In contrast, falling behind with an 0-1 count led to a substantial drop in production, yielding a meager .619 OPS. Bailey highlighted the significance of counts for both hitters and pitchers, particularly focusing on which starting pitchers excelled at getting ahead in counts in 2023.
Leading the list were some of MLB’s best pitchers, including Max Scherzer, Spencer Strider, and George Kirby. Not far behind was Joe Ryan, ranking sixth, as he began 56.6% of at-bats with a first-pitch strike. This achievement was attributed to his frequent use of fastballs early in counts, throwing them 58.4% of the time.
However, success in getting ahead in the count does not guarantee overall success, as shown by Jameson Taillon, who ranked second in first-pitch strikes but had an unimpressive ERA and FIP in 2023. For Ryan, though, this has been a consistent marker of success throughout his young career. He ranks third in MLB in winning plate appearances with the count advantage since 2020, getting hitters out 41.4% of the time.
Ryan’s success can be attributed to his unique pitching style, including a low arm angle that helps him generate swings and misses with his low-velocity fastball. Despite his fastball’s modest speed (23rd percentile), Ryan achieved a 16.8% swinging strike rate (97th percentile) last season. However, his reliance on the fastball also became a vulnerability, as hitters increasingly anticipated it, leading to more swings against his pitches than any other starting pitcher in MLB.
Ryan’s performance suffered due to a left groin strain, particularly from June 27th to August 2nd. However, beyond the injury, a concerning trend emerged. Hitters were unafraid of his secondary pitches, which were less effective, causing Ryan to rely heavily on his fastball. This predictability allowed hitters to sit on his fastball, leading to an increase in home runs allowed.
Looking ahead, Ryan needs to improve his off speed pitches and reduce his reliance on the fastball to reach the next level as a pitcher. Fine-tuning his splitter and potentially adding a new secondary pitch, like a gyro slider, could enhance his repertoire and effectiveness. This season will be pivotal for Ryan, determining whether he can fulfill his potential as a frontline starter or remain a steady back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
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